Prices delayed 15+ min
DEFCON calendar — next 7 days
2026-04-14
09:00
US-Iran Ceasefire Talks (Pakistan)
DEFCON 2
HIGH
2026-04-14
All Day
Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Violations Assessment
Easter ceasefire already showing hundreds of violations. Escalation risk.
DEFCON 3
MEDIUM
2026-04-15
08:30
US Retail Sales (March)
Tariff impact assessment critical.
DEFCON 2
HIGH
2026-04-16
14:00
EU-US Iran War Response Meeting
Transatlantic tensions over Iran. France-China back-channels active.
DEFCON 3
MEDIUM
2026-04-17
10:00
China Trade Data Release
First full quarter of reciprocal tariffs.
DEFCON 2
HIGH
2026-04-18
Ongoing
Taiwan Strait PLA Nuclear Response Drills Continue
Escalatory posture near Japan. Regional instability rising.
DEFCON 3
MEDIUM
2026-04-19
All Day
US Naval Blockade Iran - Week 2 Assessment
Iran calling it 'piracy'. Regional maritime retaliation threatened.
DEFCON 2
HIGH
Geopolitical risk monitor
US-China
CRITICAL
Trade war expanding beyond China to EU. Tariff regime now 12+ months old with measurable economic damage. Multi-theater trade conflict straining global supply chains and alliance structures.
- Trade war intensifying - full year of tariffs showing winners/losers
- Trump escalating with European car tariff threats - multi-front trade conflict
- Economic impact assessments proliferating - recession risk rising
Iran
DEFCON 1 SCENARIO - Active US-Iran war with naval blockade. Regional maritime retaliation threatened. Ceasefire talks fragile. Transatlantic alliance fracturing over war strategy.
- US naval blockade active - Iran denouncing as illegal piracy
- Ceasefire talks scheduled Pakistan but new tensions emerging pre-negotiation
- US military assets tracked throughout region - full combat posture
- US-EU split widening - France conducting China back-channels without US coordination
Ukraine
ELEVATED - Ceasefire dead on arrival. Conflict resuming normal intensity. European concern that US Iran war is draining focus/resources from Ukraine theater. Two-front attention deficit for NATO.
- Easter ceasefire collapsing - hundreds of violations from both sides
- Russian offensive continues per ISW assessment April 12
- EU pushing war crimes tribunal - escalatory legal framework
- Estonian FM warning Ukraine becoming secondary priority amid Iran war
Taiwan
WATCH CLOSELY - China demonstrating nuclear-scenario readiness in Taiwan context. Drone deployment and exercises suggest preparation phase. US distracted by Iran - window of opportunity calculus by Beijing possible.
- PLA conducting nuclear attack response drills facing Taiwan Strait and Japan
- China deploying AI drones (converted jets) to bases near strait
- Nuclear posture exercises escalatory signal
- Analysts assessing invasion scenarios actively
Black swan indicators — early warning
| Indicator | Value | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.54 | >40 | NORMAL |
| VIX/VVIX ratio | 0.19 | >0.55 | NORMAL |
| 10Y yield | 4.30% | >5.0% | ELEVATED |